Iranically Iran, Middle East’s Karen…

[petros]

Details of the recent limited Israeli retaliatory strike against Iranian anti-aircraft missile batteries at Isfahan are still sketchy. But nonetheless, we can draw some conclusions.

Israel’s small volley of missiles hit their intended targets, to the point of zeroing in on the very launchers designed to stop such incoming ordnance.

The target was near the Natanz enrichment facility. That proximity was by design. Israel showed Iran it could take out the very anti-missile battery designed to thwart an attack on its nearby nuclear facility.

The larger message sent to the world was that Israel could send a retaliatory barrage at Iranian nuclear sites with reasonable assurances that the incoming attacks could not be stopped.

Pfffffb. Americans did it.

 

[Ron in Regina]

This may seem like it’s in the wrong thread initially…but I actually think it belongs here once it’s watched through.

Yes, initially talking about Rafah & Iranian sponsored Hamas, but only initially. It then addresses Iranian sponsored Hezbollah, and then Iran itself and the Middle East as a whole.

 

[Jinentonix]

Iran has built a wide network of allied armed groups and proxies operating in countries across the Middle East. They are all opposed to Israel and the US, and sometimes refer to themselves as the "Axis of Resistance", though the extent of Iran's influence over them is not clear.
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"Certainly all roads of responsibility lead back to Iran," House Intelligence Committee Chairman Mike Turner told BBC News, also linking the country to attacks by Yemen's Iran-backed Houthi movement against ships in the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden.

Actually, those roads lead to the CCP. The CCP is actively supporting Iran (and their terrorist network) with both funding and weapons. In fact China has, or had an agreement with the Houthis, a quid pro quo I guess you could call it, that they would lay off Chinese flagged shipping in the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden since they were getting goodies from China via Iran. Ironically when they did attack a Chinese flagged ship it was the US Navy that came to its rescue.

 

[petros]

Both Netanyahu and Sinwar Need to Win, So the Gaza War Will Carry On​

Most Israelis and Gazans understand that they have lost too much for there to be any notion of 'victory' in this war. But as long as their fates are controlled by two men who insist on being the victor, at any cost, this war is going to continue

Anshel Pfeffer
May 5, 2024
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Palestinians inspecting the site of an Israeli strike on a house in Rafah on Sunday.Credit: Hatem Khaled/Reuters

The breathless reports in Arab media on Saturday that Hamas had agreed to the Egyptian cease-fire and hostage release proposal were premature. While talks are still ongoing in Cairo, as of Sunday evening it is looking increasingly unlikely that Hamas' chief in Gaza and the man who calls the shots on any deal, Yahya Sinwar, is prepared to agree to any compromise that Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu can accept.

Both men are determined to emerge with a perception of victory in their grasp – but there doesn't appear to be any framework in which the two can have that.

By any meaningful or objective sense of the word, neither side can be said to have "won" the war between Israel and Hamas. On October 7, Israel suffered the most grievous blow in its history when Hamas' surprise attack killed nearly 1,200 people and depopulated entire communities around Gaza's borders. In the subsequent seven months, Hamas has lost around 10 times that number of fighters, another 20,000 civilians are estimated to have been killed, and the main cities and townships in Gaza have been largely destroyed.

• Netanyahu hoped Hamas would reject Israel's offer. When it didn't, he turned to sabotage
• America has finally found effective leverage on Israel – and Netanyahu
• 'I asked Sinwar, is it worth 10,000 Gazans dying? He said, even 100,000 is worth it'

But the only way the two leaders who have brought so much destruction on their own and each other's peoples hope to survive after the war is by trying to convince enough of their people that they have actually won. Many, of course, can never be convinced. The awful facts can never be overturned.

But autocratic populists like Netanyahu and murdering fundamentalists like Sinwar don't care about facts, and only ever need to convince just a chunk of the population – the "real" people – of their victory. Everyone else will be branded as defeatists and traitors for not believing in victory.

For Sinwar's purposes, a "victory" is easier to achieve. All he needs to do is stay alive and allow Netanyahu to keep making all the mistakes. He still has about half of his fighters still alive, and since Netanyahu refuses to accept any alternative force taking over in Gaza, they are already back in control of major parts of the Strip. He didn't contemplate Israel's devastating retaliation, but he's not going to relinquish power over Gaza even if it's entirely in ruins.

What Sinwar wants, says one senior Hamas watcher in the Israeli intelligence community, is to be able "to make a victory lap outside his bunker." That's all. To spend enough time in the sunlight, without fear that Israel will target him with a missile, so he can be shown on Al Jazeera walking in Gaza with a cheering crowd.

If he can achieve that, he believes his men will be able to continue enforcing their rule over Gaza. But for that he needs guarantees that Israel will not target him – not just during the truce period for the hostage release, but after that as well. And that guarantee is what will make it much more difficult for Netanyahu to claim his own victory.

Netanyahu's predicament is more complex. He needs a victory that not only he can claim, but his far-right political partners can as well. And they have already made it abundantly clear that for them, a victory has to be another major ground operation – this time in Rafah. Any guarantees to Hamas will mean that the Rafah operation is off the table for the foreseeable future.

Most Israelis have already realized that Netanyahu's talk of "total victory" is a pipe dream. A survey carried out last week by the Midgam polling company found that 62 percent of the population didn't believe such a victory was possible. Even among those who identified as right-wingers, 50 percent said it wasn't and only 42 percent thought it was.

Netanyahu doesn't need them, though. He reads the polls as well and knows that most of the nation has lost any confidence in his delivering a victory. However, his majority in the Knesset is currently based on the minority of Israelis (27 percent, according to the polls) who still believe in his hollow slogans. They are the base of his dwindling support and the voters he fears losing to the far right in a future election.

To keep his partners on board and prevent them from preempting an election, in which Likud will be decimated and he will be turfed out of office, he needs to keep the "total victory" myth alive – and that is only possible by avoiding a deal with Hamas.

Israelis and Gazans aren't stupid. Most of them have conceded that they have lost too much for there to be any notion of "victory" in this war. But as long as their fates are controlled by two men who insist on being the victor, at any cost, this war is going to continue.

HAARETZ